汇丰HSBC：2026年全球宏观策略：AI、套利交易、财政与新兴市场的下一阶段-251120（英文版）（36页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO MAINLAN

2、D CHINA AI has carried equity markets all of 2025;we believe it will drive both equities and credit in 2026 as well but in different ways Two other themes we have highlighted in 2H 2025 remain relevant for the new year fiscal frictions and EM comeback and with main market parameters trading in range

3、s and volatility low,carry trades still look attractive In this regular report,we bring together top themes and our best ideas across asset classes and geographies.HSBC Global Macro Strategist also complements our multi-asset efforts on asset allocation with actionable trades;to subscribe please cli

4、ck here Theme 1:The next leg in the AI story:We expect the AI story to broaden,benefitting adopters,enablers and software developers in equities,and utilities in credit.Stay OW US equities;OW Tech in Dev EMEA and in GEMs;Favour Utilities in credit Rationale:AI theme has carried equities in 2025 and

5、is set to be one of the key drivers impacting credit as well in 2026 in different shapes and forms.Risks:Earnings disappointment in equities,more corporate failures in credit.Theme 2:Harvest carry:US dollar,Chinese renminbi,US Treasuries,oil,etc have traded in broad ranges since the summer and will

6、likely continue to do so assuming resilient global economy and well-behaved inflation;volatility is low;keep harvesting carry with HY FX,front-end rates&credit.Prefer LatAm FX and HY CEEMEA FX;Buy 5Y ROMGB;Receive Brazil 2Y PRE-DI IRS;Buy Chile 4Y BTP Rationale:Markets trade in ranges and volatility