trading system becomes ever more fragmented. through food security policies. This fragmentation is evident in both tariff and non-tariff measures, which strategic goals rather than purely economic efficiency. vulnerable to shifts in market access, duty levels, and Indonesia's agri-food exporters, who depend heavily to overseas markets. Scenario analysis by Oxford On the supply side, tariff pass-through and supply That said, global energy prices would be expected economies could lead to a drop in global GDP to 2.3% to moderate should the trade war worsen, as energy demand. Global energy prices, including for Indonesia's agri-food producers. Under the worst-case scenario, global producer prices are oil gas and coal, are projected to fall 4-8% Under such a scenario, the global slowdown in this worst-case scenario, offering some relief to downstream demand for Indonesia's agri-food products. their total production shrink by 1.7% relative to the baseline projection between 2025 and 2030. Among them, the construction and wood manufacturing sectors will be the most severely hit, with their output slashed