Market Price Dynamics, 2021-25 YTD
As already highlighted in section 1 above, the legal market needs to lift prices following excise hikes. The weighted average legal retail price component in 2024. Specifically, the legal retail price rose by 59% in 2024 followed by a further 80% increase during 2025 YTD. In contrast, the weighted average price for the top five illicit brands (45% of illicit volumes on average) increased at a slower rate. The responsiveness to recent changes in excise. 2024 and by 19% during 2025 YTD, substantially lower than the legal The divergence in prices between the legal and illicit segments also correspond to periods when market shares shifted. More specifically, these periods can be categorised as follows: 2021: During this period, the legal market had already lost significant market share. Based on the available data and evidence, there is also a price differential between the legal and illicit (top five) segments. 2022-23: Successive low increases by the legal segment result in negligible price differentials during 2022 and 2023, which is also the period when the legal segment regains market share. 2024-25: The price differential widens sharply following the excise hike. The legal market loses 9 ppts in market share during 2024, but the loss (18 ppts) is significantly larger during 2025 YTD.