Residential solar installations and base case forecast, 2020-2036
4,647 MWdc installed in 2025, 1,301 MWdc installed in Q4 2025 The residential solar market in 2025 had two distinct periods. The first half saw economic and tax credit uncertainty, tariff concerns, and several major financier bankruptcies, resulting in some of the lowest quarterly installation volumes in years. (ITC), installers prioritized selling as many cash and loan-financed projects as possible. This push drove higher installation end installation deadline limited this surge, and many installers could not complete installations for all interested customers. Ultimately, total installed capacity for 2025 reached 4,647 MWdc, a 2% decrease from 2024. While installations in the second the residential solar installed capacity rankings in 2025. While California and Florida both experienced year-over-year declines in capacity, Puerto Rico posted a record year by more than 25%. We have slightly downgraded our five-year residential solar base case outlook compared to last quarter. Based on installer and financier expectations, as well as updated permitting and pipeline data, we now anticipate a steeper market contraction of 2025 and before July 2026 will support TPO ITC qualification through mid-2030. Longer term, retail rate inflation, falling equipment costs, grid resiliency concerns, and expanding grid services opportunities will continue to drive residential solar market adoption even without tax credits. In our base case forecast, the segment will add more than 60 GWdc between 2026