Figure 5
Comparison of 3-year post-launch commercial performance for lead assets acquired in public biopharma M&A (2010-2023)
sUccess rates aligning with industry norms. However, approximately half of these acquired assets experienced launch delays compared to their initial projections before the transaction. On average, these delays amounted to about two years. In terms of commercial performance, a significant portion (53%) of the acquired lead assets fell short of the revenue expectations set by sell-side analysts, underperforming these forecasts by a median of 35% in the three years post-M&A. Conversely, only 22% of these assets exceeded analysts, as opposed to the buy-side consensus usually mirrored in the acquiree's stock price at the transaction time, many acquired lead assets often failed to deliver the expected value. This shortfall has, at times, weakened the fundamental strategic justification for these acquisitions Takeda's Takhzyro disrupted the prophylactic standard of care in hereditary angioedema, becoming the preferred first-line treatment. Similarly, BMS' Reblozyl represented a new versus red blood cell transfusions, which were a suboptimal standard of care.