Figure 49: Our DCF valuation (Rmb m unless specified)
Source: Refinitiv, UBS estimates. Note: * denotes stocks not covered by UBS. Data as of 3 March 2026 We forecast revenue/recurring NP CAGRs of 17%/23% in 2025-27, driven by: 1) store network expansion, 2) stabilising unit store sales, 3) GM expansion from supply chain enhancement and product mix optimisation, 4) OPM expansion from economies of scale and efficiency improvement. Our key estimates: For 2025/26/27, we estimate revenue growth of 63%/24%/11% YoY; GM to gradually improve by 2.2ppts/0.3ppt/0.3ppt YoY to 9.8%/10.1%/10.4%; SG&A ratio to change by +0.3ppt/-0.2ppt/-0.1ppt YoY to 5.1%/4.9%/4.8%; recurring NP to grow 175%/33%/13% YoY, with gradual improvement in recurring NPM to 3.9%/4.2%/4.3% (+1.6ppts/+0.3ppt/+0.1ppt YoY). We initiate coverage of Busy Ming with a Buy rating and price target of HK$5oo.oo. We use DCF methodology to value the company (WACC of 8.5%; terminal growth rate of 3.0%). Our price target implies 29x/26x PE and 1.3x/1.1x PEG in 2026E/27E on a 2025E-