Demand for carbon-free power remained strong, but policy volatility constrained the supply side, forcing a repricing of risk across the PPA market. and 16 % respectively over the year. The primary driver was a downward revision in renewable build- out expectations, which materially altered capture price assumptions. Slower deployment implies higher midday price levels and a flatter duck curve, as system load increasingly outpaces renewable had already risen entering the year due to inflation, higher financing costs, and elevated equipment prices. These pressures intensified following tariff escalation and the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OB3) in July, which shortened tax credit timelines and increased uncertainty around sourcing and Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) compliance. As tax-eligible projects became scarcer, developers In contrast to solar and wind PPAs, BESS tolling prices declined year-over-year across most US regions in 2025. Rapid capacity additions, combined with falling hardware costs, pushed early-adopter cannibalization compressed intra-day price spreads, reducing the value of merchant arbitrage and
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