Commercial solar installations and base case forecast, 2020-2030
2,345 MWdc installed in 2025, 619 MWac installed in Q4 2025 Note on market segmentation: Commercial solar encompasses distributed solar projects with commercial, industrial, agricultural, school, government, or nonprofit offtakers, including remotely net-metered projects. This excludes community solar (covered in the following section). continued to dominate the market, accounting for 39% of national installations and posting 28% year-over-year growth. Interest from corporate buyers and real estate investors further supported nationwide expansion. At the same time, developers remained focused on established state markets and on strengthening client relationships, as interconnection delays continued to complicate project delivery. online in California. The state contributed 195 MWdc of new capacity that quarter, representing 31% of total U.S. commercial solar installations. For all of 2025, most commercial capacity came from California, llinois, and New York, with states such as Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Texas also posting strong installation volumes. This growth was supported by robust state incentives and cost savings, enabled by attractive project economics. We expect a 13% contraction in 2026 as developers complete the buildout of remaining NEM 2.0 projects in California and shift to smaller projects under the Net Billing Tariff (NBT). Because many developers safe-harbored equipment ahead of the FEOC deadline and have until mid-2030 to complete those projects, growth between 2026 and 2027 is expected to remain safe-harbored equipment coming online and rising retail rates that continue to support the economics of commercial solar. Our 2028-2030 forecast assumes that projects in mature markets will be financially viable even without ITC incentives. Overall, we forecast average annual growth of around 2% over the next five years.