Figure 12. Global synfuel production (considering e-fuels only) under the Global CETO 2°C scenario 2025 of the POLES-JRC model.
The role of e-fuels in the global energy system will be shaped by technological progress, cost sectors where direct electrification or efficiency measures are insufficient. In the Global CETo 2°C scenario 2025, hydrogen is the universal precursor to gaseous and liquid synfuels, as well as Synfuels are produced exclusively using COz captured via direct air capture (DAC), while ammonia is derived from hydrogen via conversion processes and can be re-cracked to hydrogen when required. In this framework, ammonia plays a dual role: it is primarily a hydrogen carrier in international trade across the 66 regions in POLES-JRC and is also used as a fuel in maritime transport. In contrast, only liquid synfuels are traded cross-border, while gaseous synfuels remain confined to domestic use in residential, industrial, and transport applications. Methanol is not represented in this version The temporal dynamics of e-fuel uptake show negligible contributions before 2035, as carbon However, once RFNBO deployment begins, growth accelerates sharply. According to the chart, global e-fuel production will reach around 40 Mtoe by 2040, split between ammonia (24 Mtoe), liquid synfuels (10 Mtoe), and gaseous synfuels (approximately 6 Mtoe). By 2045, the total will rise to about 80 Mtoe, with ammonia and liquid synfuels contributing almost equally. The fastest growth 2 For a limited period of time, fossil CO2 captured from power plants and from specific industrial installations is also allowed as feedstock for RFNBO production, in particular until 2035 in the case of C02 captured in power plants and until 2040 in the case of CO2 captured in specific industrial