图2.2:国际商品价格展望(尤其石油)面临不确定性
increased oil production outpaced demand. Looking ahead, according to the January projection of the International Energy Agency, global oil demand growth is projected to be well larger at 2.5 million barrels per day. As the situation of supply in excess of demand will further widen in 2026, international crude oil prices are likely to continue under pressure. Global food prices rose by an average 4.3% in 2025. Food prices demand, according to the World Bank's projections in October 2025. In 2025, base metals prices firmed by 7.1% amid tariff-related distortions and resilient demand in major economies. 2025, fuelled by robust investment demand, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainty. Gold prices are projected to continue to rise moderately in 2026, according to the World Bank's projections, amid rising precautionary demand and expectations of further US monetary easing.